Leading this week
This week’s Azerbaijan Brief examines the latest developments around Russia-Azerbaijan relations.
Amid a decade-long geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus, Russia and Azerbaijan have developed a robust strategic partnership. The two partners are increasingly collaborating across various fronts: disinformation, diplomacy and sanctions evasion. (Russian and Azeri disinformation campaigns are targeting Western interests in the South Caucasus, Europe and Africa.) This budding alliance culminated in Moscow greenlighting Baku’s total takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh. And in the coming period, the Moscow-Baku axis is poised to reach new heights.
Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev touched down in Moscow for a tête-��-tête with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (The visit follows the sudden withdrawal of Russian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh.) The main items on the agenda: regional security and transportation infrastructure.
During the summit, Aliyev acknowledged the tandem’s prominent role in determining the region’s geopolitical trajectory. Addressing his authoritarian counterpart, Aliyev declared: “Russia is a key country in terms of regional security in the Caucasus and in a broader geography. Much depends on the actions and cooperation between our countries.”
According to observers, the rapid departure of Russian “peacekeepers” from Nagorno-Karabakh is also a product of Moscow and Baku’s special relationship — and expanded regional coordination. Russia no longer requires an on-the-ground presence to safeguard its interests in the South Caucasus. Instead, Azerbaijan is increasingly serving as a regional custodian of Russian interests. This new mode of collaboration reflects Russia’s evolving approach towards its near abroad — and Azerbaijan’s growing strategic value vis-à-vis the Kremlin.
While meeting, Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin also highlighted the importance of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a new trade route connecting Russia to the Indian Ocean. (Baku hosts a leg of the INSTC.) The corridor, while serving to facilitate Russian access to Asian markets, will also establish a secure channel between Moscow and Tehran, global pariahs turned security partners. Russia is poised to leverage this link — as well as the proposed “Zangezur Corridor” — to weather the economic fallout of the Ukraine conflict and circumvent tightening international sanctions regimes
People we are watching
In recent years, a shadowy network of politicians and businessmen have helped nurture the Moscow-Baku strategic partnership. The following figures are a partial who’s who of Russian-Azerbaijan relations.
God Nisanov. The Jewish-origin Russian-Azerbaijani property developer is a key interlocutor between Moscow and Baku. Nisanov co-owns the Kievskaya Ploschad Group, Russia’s largest commercial real estate holding. (The conglomerate’s assets include Sadovod Market and Food City, Moscow’s biggest wholesale food distribution center.) And Nisanov’s rolodex — and business associates — feature high-ranking members of the Russian and Azeri elite.
In 2020, Proekt, a Russian investigative outlet, published an expose around Nisanov’s personal friendship with Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service. Nisanov also maintains close ties with Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Russia’s Minister of Internal Affairs and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin.
Proekt also published a follow-up investigation into Nisanov in 2023. The investigation revealed that Nisanov helped lobby Moscow not to intervene in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. (Following the war, Aliyev awarded Nisanov the prestigious Dostlug Order for his services to the “development of mutual relationships between Azerbaijan and Russia.”)
According to reports, Nisanov has also served as an intermediary between Azerbaijan and Israel.
Farkhad Akhmedov. The Russian-Azerbaijani billionaire is also a recipient of the Dostlug Order — and a regional influence broker. In the past, the former politician served as a diplomatic intermediary between Russia and Turkey. Akhmedov also helped Azerbaijan cultivate ties with conservative circles in the United States, including the Trump administration.
The well-connected businessman has also contributed to closer Moscow-Baku ties. While a member of the Russian delegation to PACE, Farhad Akhmedov played an important role in the development of inter-parliamentary cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan.
Alexander Beglov. St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov, a friend of God Nisanov, is a longtime champion of Azerbaijan. The Baku-born official, an outspoken cheerleader of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, recently led an economic delegation to Azerbaijan. Greater cooperation across key portfolios — trade, manufacturing and shipbuilding — featured high on the visit’s agenda.
Why the world should care
Azerbaijan and Russia are consolidating a new, authoritarian geopolitical order in the South Caucasus. Armed with a common agenda, Baku is increasingly serving as a regional proxy for Russian interests. (Undermining the West’s local footprint is a particular priority.) This authoritarian duo — and its non-state networks — are poised to continue threatening Armenia, while also bolstering authoritarian resilience in the region (i.e., Georgia and Turkey).
Deals and visits ✈️
• Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan mull expanding military cooperation
• Baku hosts Azerbaijan-Hungary business forum
• Iran, Azerbaijan discuss boosting bilateral ties
• United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan hail climate collaboration
Quote of the week
“Azerbaijan was among the first countries to express its opinion with respect to the elections in Taiwan. We did not only express concern but also denounced it. Our [Baku’s] policy with respect to One China is very well-known to our Chinese partners, and China has always supported Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.”
— Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addresses Chinese delegation on April 23, 2024
