On 13 December, the Institute for Security Analysis (ISA) hosted Simone Zoppellaro, a journalist and researcher, to discuss his investigations into Azerbaijan’s influence campaigns in the Vatican and Italy more broadly. The lecture examined the evolving relationship between Azerbaijan and the Holy See in the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the forced displacement of Armenians from the region.
Why is this happening?
According to Simone Zoppellaro, the Vatican finds “diplomatic space” in Azerbaijan to expand its influence over post-Soviet republics, at a time when the Church’s global influence is limited and under pressure. Azerbaijan also invests in the Vatican through restoration projects and cultural initiatives.
From Azerbaijan’s perspective, the relationship is strategic in the context of its war against Armenia. Amid its violations of international law and human rights in Nagorno-Karabakh, this engagement supports Azerbaijan’s narratives of religious tolerance, interfaith dialogue, and international legitimacy, while obscuring its domestic and regional policies. The awarding of Vatican honours to senior Azerbaijani officials was cited as evidence of the depth of this relationship.
What is the scale? An issue of transparency
The scope of Azerbaijan’s monetary flows to the Vatican remains unclear. The problem is that, as a sovereign state, the Vatican is not subject to the transparency requirements that apply in democratic systems. Since these financial flows are not publicly announced or documented, the scale of the contributions is unknown. From an ethical standpoint, the lack of transparency is problematic, as the partnerships are publicly framed as peace- and dialogue-oriented initiatives. But it also sets a precedent for other authoritarian regimes to use the Church as a channel for deeper penetration into European systems and their erosion.
Rebranding Armenian heritage
Zoppellaro also touched upon the topic of Armenian heritage destruction and reclassification by Azerbaijan. According to him, the discourse of “Western Azerbaijan” has not resonated strongly among members of the Catholic community. However, he noted that Azerbaijan’s reclassification operations have also been conducted in Italy, alongside other European capitals such as Warsaw.
Italy as a gateway for influence
Azerbaijan’s penetration into the Vatican is tied to Azerbaijan’s stronger political position in Italy. Bilateral ties between the two states are marked by Italy’s energy dependence on Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan uses as a “gateway” for influence in Europe. Zoppellaro argued that the extension of these relations into cultural initiatives and academic partnerships has converged with political engagement to reinforce Azerbaijan’s influence network. He further observed that corruption in Italy represents a critical enabling condition, allowing Azerbaijan to secure malign influence through financial inducements.
Implications for Europe and democratic resilience
The lecture concluded that sustained engagement with authoritarian regimes, when framed as pragmatism or dialogue, risks weakening democratic norms and legitimising coercive power. The Azerbaijan–Vatican case was highlighted as part of a pattern in which economic interests and the quest for diplomatic stature displace accountability, with repercussions that extend beyond Armenia and erode Europe’s democratic credibility and standing.