On 19 November, analysts of the Institute for Security Analysis (ISA) delivered a lecture on regional development in the South Caucasus. The discussion focused on Armenian–Russian bilateral relations, the TRIPP agreement, Azerbaijan’s military strategy, and domestic political developments in Armenia.
Armenian–Russian bilateral relations
Speakers discussed recent developments in Armenian–Russian relations, noting increased bilateral meetings and Armenia’s continued engagement with Eurasian organisations. These developments suggest that characterising the current Armenian government as pursuing an openly anti-Russian policy does not reflect current diplomatic practice.
It was also noted that Russia’s information strategy contributes to this perception, as Moscow often presents itself as disengaged for broader geopolitical reasons. This environment affects domestic political dynamics in Armenia, where opposition actors are frequently labelled pro-Russian when challenging the government.
TRIPP Agreement
The TRIPP agreement was discussed in the context of geopolitical positioning and economic gains. Speakers noted that the agreement has been widely promoted on social media and in expert networks as marking the end of Russia’s geopolitical presence and the replacement of Russian actors with Western ones. This is a contradiction, as Russian official rhetoric on the agreement has been largely positive, given its importance in connecting Russia with other regional actors and providing it with land access to new trade markets.
The agreement has also been promoted as a significant economic opportunity. ISA speakers noted, however, that studies of similar routes in Eurasian contexts have so far shown only marginal economic gains. In addition, the South Caucasus already has operational middle corridor routes. These two factors raise questions about the scale of the additional financial benefits Armenia could expect and the incentives required to redirect trade routes through its territory.
Azerbaijan’s military buildup
The lecture also addressed Azerbaijan’s military buildup and its new defence strategy. Azerbaijan has increased its military spending and introduced a novel air defence system through the acquisition of new hardware. Moreover, alongside its six major military units, Azerbaijan has also acquired new rocket systems for the army base stationed in Nakhichevan, at the doorstep of Yerevan. The direction of these hard-power acquisitions indicates that Azerbaijan’s new military doctrine emphasises a disarming-strike strategy that could paralyse Armenia’s defence system from its centre if not counterbalanced.
Domestic developments in Armenia
The lecture concluded with an assessment of domestic political developments and their influence on the political system. Speakers noted that Armenia risks becoming an electoral autocracy, in which the government is elected through democratic elections but undermines democratic institutions through its governance.